Atlético Ottawa, just a year removed from finishing last in the Canadian Premier League table, are set to host this year’s playoff Final, having finished atop the standings in the regular season and beaten Pacific FC in a two-legged semifinal tie.

This side, led by Spanish coach Carlos González, has improved leaps and bounds from its previous two seasons in the CPL. They amassed 49 points this year, including a league-record 28 away from home in a remarkably consistent run. Ottawa’s squad has 16 new players that joined prior to this season, and the changes seem to have had an immediate effect.

Atleti will host Forge for the third time this season on Sunday, with the stakes far higher than either of the previous meetings. This is the club’s first Final, pitting them against a Forge team that has played in four straight. Experience is not exactly on Ottawa’s side, then, but nonetheless there’s plenty of reason to believe they can topple the Hamilton side.

Here are three reasons why Atlético Ottawa could win the 2022 CPL Final.

1. Defensive structure and organization

The key factor behind Ottawa’s massive improvement this year has been the well-drilled defensive foundation that began in preseason and has gotten better and better with each successive week.

After a brief settling-in period in the first couple months of the season, which saw Ottawa tinker a little bit with personnel and formations to try and find the best combinations, they’ve landed on a system that works. This team almost always sits in a 4-5-1 shape without the ball, keeping that wide line across the middle to restrict access to inside channels and prevent passes into the penalty area.

The back four will surely be flanked by fullbacks Miguel Acosta and Maxim Tissot, with Diego Espejo and either Sergio Camus or Drew Beckie (depending on the latter’s availability) in the middle. Ahead of them, it’s Zakaria Bahous (or Keven Alemán, if fit), Ballou Tabla, Abdou Sissoko, Ollie Bassett, and Carl Haworth, with either Brian Wright or Malcolm Shaw patrolling the front as a striker.

The individual personnel may actually not be as important as the way the 10 outfield players shift and hold their shape. It’s very difficult for opposing teams to pull any Ottawa players out of position or bait them into stepping out of line, which means sides have trouble passing through Atleti’s lines and getting into truly dangerous areas, instead opting for harmless crosses or low-quality shots.

Playing against a low block similar like Ottawa’s is something Forge have actually struggled with at times this year; the Hammers scored just one goal in two home games against Ottawa, and both times they had trouble picking their deep-lying opponent apart. Atleti were ultimately able to score (in transition and from a set-piece) after weathering the storm. FC Edmonton and Valour used similar tactics to some degree of success against Forge at times this year too, though no team in the league is quite as effective at it as Atlético Ottawa.

This isn’t to say Ottawa will sit back entirely in the Final; still, they’ll likely be happy to surrender some possession and frustrate Forge’s attack.

2. Individual difference-makers

While Ottawa’s defensive success has largely been down to their collective performance, the goals at the other end often come from moments of individual quality. In Leg 2 of the semifinal, Zach Verhoven won the ball and drove it forward well, and Malcolm Shaw hit a perfect curler from distance to score.

A number of players have stepped up in various moments this year, so there’s no telling who exactly might be the difference-maker on the day, but if Ottawa are to score against Forge they’ll likely need someone with the quality to finish a chance that might fall — of which there may not be many.

Ballou Tabla seems like a player who could fit the bill in this sense; he’s a perfect player for the transitional attacks Ottawa look for with his ball skill and quickness.

Then, of course, there’s Ollie Bassett — like Tabla, a nominee for Player of the Year — who led this club in goals this year with eight despite playing in midfield. He has a remarkable ability to pick out a pass and get into advanced positions, operating within the right half-space primarily. Plus, Bassett is better than almost anyone in the league at making something happen from a set-piece, whether a direct free-kick or a corner (from which he’s also scored directly this year).

The full 11-man effort will be crucial to Ottawa’s ability to hold off the Hamilton visitors, but to score a goal in transition they’ll probably need the individual sharpness to make use of limited opportunities.

3. Massive home-field advantage?

The best thing about finishing first in the league table is ensuring home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Ottawa did that, and therefore the Final is at TD Place. In a clash between the first and second-place teams in the league, every minor advantage can go a long way, so Atleti will be thrilled to be at home on Sunday.

That said, Ottawa haven’t necessarily dominated at home this year. In fact, they had just the fifth-best home record, earning 21 points in 14 games with five wins, six draws, and three defeats.

That won’t weigh heavily on their minds, though. They would still much prefer to play the Final at home than anywhere else, being able to train on pitches they know and use their own facilities in the days leading up to the match.

Then, of course, there’s the TD Place advantage: The atmosphere will be something special on Sunday. With over 10,000 expected to be in attendance for the Final, there’s no doubt the stadium will be electric.

Section W, colloquially known as the Dub, will be packed to the brim as usual and is sure to be on its feet throughout the 90 minutes, but the rest of the stadium might be as well. This will be an atmosphere that can lift a team, even if Ottawa fall behind or things don’t quite go their way in the opening stages.

And if things do start to turn Ottawa’s way? Look out. The building might explode.

The 2022 Canadian Premier League Final will be played Sunday, Oct. 30 at 6 p.m. ET between Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC, at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa. Tickets are available here, and the match will be broadcast live on OneSoccer, Fubo TV, and Telus Optik TV channel 980.