2023 CPL Regular Season — Match #111
Forge FC vs. Atlético Ottawa
October 7, 2023 at 5 p.m. ET
Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario
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Forge FC’s quest to reach a fifth straight CPL Final could receive a significant boost if they take care of business against Atlético Ottawa on Saturday at Tim Hortons Field in their final match of the 2023 regular season.
The two 2022 CPL Finalists enter this match in very different circumstances. The Hamilton side are one of the few who have a straightforward scenario heading into the final weekend. Should they win on Saturday, regardless of other results, they will clinch second place. That would mean heading to Calgary next Saturday for a non-elimination playoff game where the winner advances, and hosts, the 2023 CPL Final.
“That’s the most important thing in these types of matches, especially this time of year, it is the last thing you want to do is be looking to see what is going on elsewhere and depending on different things,” said Forge FC head coach Bobby Smyrniotis. “That sometimes can take your focus away of what you need. We know it’s pretty straightforward, three points. It’s not an easy task but it is straightforward in what you need to do.”
A loss, however, could see them drop as low as fourth, which would mean hosting a midweek 4th vs. 5th match to open the playoffs, and losing home advantage for the rest of the postseason beyond that match. Forge will actually be without Smyrniotis on the sidelines for this match as the result of a one match suspension for yellow card accumulation, but he said in his prematch press conference that it is the players who truly make the difference on gameday.
Atleti, on the other hand, will very much be scoreboard watching, knowing that a York United victory on Friday night against Vancouver FC would eliminate them from playoff contention. If the Nine Stripes draw or lose, however, a victory for Ottawa, which would be their first in seven matches, would see Atleti clinch the fifth and final playoff spot.
Forge FC have generally been dominant against Atlético Ottawa historically, and this year has been no different. The Hamilton side won the first two meetings of the season, plus a Canadian Championship quarter-final meeting on May 9 in a penalty shootout, before the two teams drew 0-0 in their most recent meeting on August 26.
Ottawa, who set a league record for points away from home last season in their run to the 2022 regular season title, have lost three straight on the road. That critically included a 1-0 loss to York United that dropped them below the playoff line heading into the final week of the CPL season.
Funnily enough only Pacific have conceded fewer second half goals than Atlético Ottawa this season. Eight of those sixteen, however, have come in the 80th minute and beyond, all of which ended up being match-winning goals for their opponents.
Forge, meanwhile, put in a strong performance on the road last weekend in Halifax but ultimately lost 2-1 in a match that could have already secured them second place had they won. The way that match played out will only increase their motivation to finish the job on Saturday at home.
Forge will once again be without key attacker David Choinière who is working his way back from a longer-term injury. The 26-year-old has not played in the Hamilton side’s last nine matches. Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, will be without striker Malcolm Shaw but otherwise are healthy heading into the final match of the regular season.
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3 THINGS TO WATCH
- Pacius, Campbell, Bassett locked in Golden Boot race: Saturday’s match will be crucial in another race as well, that for the 2023 CPL Golden Boot. Three of the top four scorers in the league currently will go head-to-head, as Ollie Bassett (11 goals), Terran Campbell and Woobens Pacius (10) will all be looking to top the goalscoring table come the end of the season. It is worth noting that both Pacius and Campbell have been lethal against Ottawa in their careers, scoring five and four goals against Atleti respectively. Bassett, meanwhile, has a tidy three goals against Forge in his career. Pacius scored the winner in the other CPL meeting between the two sides at Tim Hortons Field this season, with Campbell picking up a brace in a thrilling 4-3 contest. This will be an intriguing side story to watch during Saturday’s match, especially in the scenario that Forge win a penalty kick.
- The opening goal looms large: On the mind of both teams on Saturday will be starting the match a lot better than they have lately. For Atlético Ottawa, a lot of ink has been understandably spilled about how many matches they have lost of late due to goals conceded in the final moments of matches. However, just as impactful in them ending up in those difficult situations is the fact that they have scored first just once in their past seven. They are left chasing points and goals late in games, which has undoubtedly contributed to the large number of goals against in the final moments. “We have to try to start with the front foot, to create chances, to score as soon as possible so that mentally the team approaches the game in a different way,” said Atlético Ottawa head coach Carlos González. Forge, meanwhile, had largely been doing a better job of starting matches on the front foot, but have now conceded early in back-to-back matches. They will undoubtedly be looking to strike first on Saturday, and put Ottawa under even more pressure.
- Can Forge build home momentum after disappointing year at Tim Hortons Field?: Regardless of the result on Saturday, 2023 will go in the record books as the worst home season in Forge history to date. They will hit lows at home in terms of wins (currently at just four), plus conceding the most goals they ever have (17 or more) and can finish at most with 22 home points. With that being said, Forge have been much better at home of late, going undefeated in Hamilton in their last seven home matches, after winning just once in the first six. One thing they surprisingly have not done this season, however? Back-to-back wins at Tim Hortons Field in CPL action. Accomplishing that in an important match like this would go a long way toward their ultimate goal of winning a fourth Playoff final, ideally for the first time in front of their home supporters.
PROJECTED STARTING XIs
Forge FC (3-4-1-2): Henry; Metusala, Achinioti-Jönsson, James; Rama, Hojabrpour, Bekker, Poku; Badibanga; Campbell, Pacius
Atlético Ottawa (3-4-1-2): Ingham; Singh, Espejo, Acosta; Tissot, Iliadis, Zapater, Assi; Bassett; Salter, del Campo
ALL-TIME SERIES
Forge FC wins: 11 || Atlético Ottawa wins: 1 || Draws: 3
Last meeting:
August 26, 2023 – Atlético Ottawa 0-0 Forge FC
KEY QUOTES
“The reality is that the team needs and deserves a good end to the season, and we’ve only prepared the team for one reason and that is winning three points in Hamilton. So this has been the focus of the preparation this week.” — Atlético Ottawa head coach Carlos González
“We know at this time of the year it is important to also energize our fans for what could be coming forward. We need to put in a good showing tomorrow, get them behind us to make sure they are even louder in the next games to come.” — Forge FC head coach Bobby Smyrniotis
“We know that we can be the deciders of our own fate, and it has been like that for a couple of years where we put ourselves in a position to do something well and we’ve tried not to focus too much on the opponent or what is going on with them really. I think it is the same [on Saturday] where no matter what happens [on Friday] with York we’ve got to go out and deal with our business. Whatever happens to them, that’s them not us. As long as we focus on ourselves I think we will be okay.” — Forge FC defender/midfielder Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson