2023 CPL Regular Season — Match #108
York United FC vs. Atlético Ottawa
Sunday, October 1 at 1 p.m. ET
York Lions Stadium in Toronto, Ontario
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Win and you’re in — kind of.

Atlético Ottawa visit York United this Sunday in the most make-or-break regular season game in recent CPL memory, with the two sides fighting for the right to control their own destiny and get into the playoffs. They sit fifth and sixth, respectively, in the standings, with Ottawa occupying the final playoff spot with a one-point lead.

For Ottawa, it’s a simple concept: If they beat York, they’ll clinch a playoff spot. With just one game to play after this one, a four-point gap would be too much for York to overcome next week, meaning Atleti (and Halifax Wanderers) would be guaranteed a postseason berth.

For York, though? It’s a little trickier. If they win, they won’t quite lock up a place in the top five, but they’ll leapfrog Ottawa and control their own destiny next week when they wrap up their regular season at Vancouver FC. If they lose this game, though, it’s over, and the Nine Stripes will finish sixth.

“I don’t think there’s nerves, it’s a bit late for that,” York head coach Martin Nash said on Friday. “There’s a lot on the line, but it took 26 games to get here, what’s one more, in a way? But it’s our biggest game of the year. We’re at that time of the year where you need to start getting wins, and you also want to get wins and good results going into the playoffs if you get there.”

A draw would represent a missed opportunity for both sides, but they would each remain alive heading into that final weekend — in that case, York would need a favour from Forge FC against Ottawa no matter what they do in their own game against Vancouver.

RELATED: Clinch/Elimination Scenarios: York United-Atlético Ottawa clash could decide it all

No matter what, the season is essentially on the line for both of these clubs on Sunday. The race is incredibly tight, and it’s remained so for several weeks partly due to both teams’ dipping form.

This visit from Ottawa will conclude York’s four-game homestand, from which they have yet to pick up a point. They lost decisively to Valour FC and Pacific FC, before improving slightly against top side Cavalry FC but still falling 1-0 last Saturday. The Nine Stripes’ last home win was Aug. 25, when they beat Vancouver FC 2-1 in what was just their third league victory at York Lions Stadium.

Things haven’t been going much better for Atleti, though. They’re winless in their last six, with four losses in that span — all of them heartbreakers, where they’ve conceded a goal in stoppage time to come away empty handed. Cavalry, Vancouver, Halifax and — most recently — Valour have all taken three points from Ottawa at the death, preventing Atleti from establishing any security in the top five. Last Sunday’s game looked destined to finish 0-0, until Valour’s Walter Ponce found the net in the 94th minute.

If there’s been late drama in Ottawa’s games recently, that’s also certainly been the case earlier this year in games against York. Last time these sides met, the Nine Stripes coughed up a two-goal lead and conceded an 81st-minute equalizer at TD Place for a 3-3 draw. Osaze De Rosario also scored an 80th-minute winner at home to beat Atleti 2-1 before that, in an entertaining back-and-forth game at York Lions Stadium.

The good news for York on Sunday is that they’ll have some reinforcements, with star attacker Mo Babouli returning from suspension along with U-21 defender Noah Abatneh. Both players might step into the squad immediately. Ottawa’s Carlos González, meanwhile, likewise had a positive update on a key player, with centre-back Diego Espejo — who has missed seven weeks with injury — back in full training, after making the matchday 18 last weekend but not appearing in the game. González confirmed that Espejo is in contention to start at York, depending on how comfortable he is stepping right back into the lineup.

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3 THINGS TO WATCH

• Ottawa can’t afford late-game mishaps again: There’s been considerable frustration in the Atlético Ottawa ranks lately because of how they’ve dropped points with almost the last kick of the match so many times. Even in Halifax, when they scored an equalizer in stoppage time, the Wanderers went straight back up the other end and scored the winner. Perhaps the most difficult part of it all for Carlos González and his staff is that there’s not a lot they can do to address this recurring issue, other than repeatedly reminding players to stay switched on in the final stages. That said, perhaps the better solution would be for Ottawa to score earlier and take more comfortable leads, avoiding those late-game situations altogether. “We cannot focus too much on the past,” González said Friday. “It’s true that we have to acknowledge why things are happening, but we cannot lose much time on the past. … The margins have been very, very thin since the beginning. Last season, probably some of the time it went to our side, and this season it’s going more usually to the other team’s side. … Maybe getting to the last minutes with a bigger advantage or a different type of situation so we can be a bit better, but we are focusing on the process.”

• York seeking attacking spark: York United have scored just two goals in their last three games, and both of them were well after they had any hope of coming back for a result in those games. They haven’t scored a first-half goal since their last meeting with Atlético Ottawa, back on Aug. 5, and they haven’t scored a first-half goal at home since June 21. If there’s one thing York have to focus on in this game, it’s starting off on the right foot. They won’t want to fall behind early as they have been recently, because it’s much more difficult to play from behind against an Ottawa side that can shut things down entirely if they take a lead. “We’ve got to be on the front foot from the start,” coach Martin Nash said this week. “We’ve got to be active, we’ve got to be alert because they’re really good on the counter. They’ve got some dangerous pieces in attack and they can be stingy defensively.”

• Fine margins demand discipline despite playoff-like intensity: There’s no doubt this game will be played with the intensity and physicality of a final, and even the tiniest of moments — one duel lost, one pass misplaced, one foul in the wrong area — could be enough to make or break a team’s entire season at this point. With that in mind, both teams absolutely cannot afford to lose their cool; York have, at times, let things get out of hand in games where things aren’t going their way, like the Valour loss at home where they finished the match with nine men. Ottawa, meanwhile, have twice let their focus drop recently after scoring what seemed like an emotional stoppage-time equalizer, against Cavalry and Halifax; they need to maintain composure as well. Both sides know what’s at stake, which may mean nervous energy in this game, but they’ll need to toe the line cautiously to avoid major game-subverting errors.

PROJECTED STARTING XIs

York United: Himaras; Grant, Gee, Abatneh, Ferrari; Soumaoro, Gagnon-Laparé; Santos, Babouli, Ricci; De Rosario

Atlético Ottawa: Ingham; Acosta, Ouimette, Singh, Tissot; Assi, Zapater, Iliadis, Bassett; Shaw, Salter

ALL-TIME SERIES

York United wins: 4 || Atlético Ottawa wins: 1 || Draws: 9

Last meeting:

August 6, 2023 – Atlético Ottawa 3-3 York United

KEY QUOTES

“This is like a cup final now, and it comes down to one game. We need a win to put the playoff picture in our hands; a draw doesn’t put it in our hands. It doesn’t get us out, but it doesn’t put it in our hands. We want to get that back in our hands, so we’re going to have to come out with a good performance, and we have to get out to a good start to do that.” — York United head coach Martin Nash

“Now the season is ending, everything starts to be more and more important. This weekend is going to be a big one, between two good teams that are looking for the same objectives and come from a similar dynamic.” — Atlético Ottawa head coach Carlos González